CASE - Quantitative modelling for business decisions: minimizing LoE erosion for a Primary Care blockbuster

Client Need

Loss of Exclusivity is a highly challenging situation for any pharmaceutical company, especially when involving a multi-billion USD blockbuster.
The design and implementation of LoE strategies requires a high level of customization by market, as different regulations, healthcare system's structures, culture and market environments exist. Emerging Markets have peculiar challenges and often represent an opportunity for experimenting with new business models and approaches.

The Client needed to:

  1. Quantify the expected loss following LoE estimating price elasticity and erosion rates in the market
  2. Identify the optimal positioning of a portfolio strategy (including also dual brands and branded Gx),
  3. Calculate the potential of such positioning and pricing strategy and
  4. Adapt the promotional model and devise a medium term strategy to address patients, physicians and distribution.


An initial market landscape was built collecting all sources of information from the Client and integrated through primary research (e.g. price-elasticity analysis): products' performance and prices, sales in private and public institutions, prescribing behaviour influencers and outcomes, patients' preferences, trade influence on decision making, current Client's strategies and tactics, competitors' strategies and tactics.

Quantitative modelling of stakeholders' behaviour ("Market Response Model") analyses market data, plots landscape evolution hypotheses, and estimates outcomes of strategies and tactics vs competitors' reactions.

Portfolio strategies and tactics were prioritized based on their potential and changes in the organizational structure and promotional model were assessed in terms of: field resources, targets, incentives, tools.


  • Market Response Model consistently used across markets to assess the value of opportunities
  • Market-specific portfolio decisions were taken based on results of the project: new dual-brands and private label brands were launched as a consequence of the project's outcomes
  • The project was awarded as best project within the company's Emerging Market division

Designed and developed by: Brand039